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Post by Arch on Aug 27, 2008 17:58:01 GMT -5
However the 10,400 number was bogus and known to be so quite a while back- yet it was still in circulation here, on blue and in general conversations very recently. No one was going to attend a 5000 student HS. The original commitee of parents and SD admin had the numbers almost exactly right 5 years ago - for 2009 thru 2012 - yet we chose someone else who it turns out screwed up other districts forecasts also. As 1st and 2nd grade attendances started to drop ( before the economic issues we have today) - some - including those in power ) again brought up split shifts when there was zero danger of these IMHO. As someone Iknowwho hates FUD - thankfully this discussion was short lived as it was silly. Yes the current ( last 12 months ) economics market has caused even further slowdown and no one saw that coming - which is why I believe the March #'s going forward likely will be adjusted downward yet again. From an email in 2006 from the SD: "We currently have 9,200 students in grades two through five and more are on the way as new houses continue to be built. We are on pace to have the two largest high schools in the state with approximately 5,000 students each." IIRC, the projected numbers for peak in HS enrollment was a range, something to the effect of 9,700-10,200. This still seems very realistic, it just might take a few more years to get there. Again, anyone that, in 2005 or 2006, could predict the massive housing slowdown in 2007-2008 (which has obviously slowed down the buildout in 204, and subsequently impacted the enrollment numbers) must literally have a crystal ball. If one applied the .com boom/bust to the housing boom; it would not seem unreasonable that a 'bust' was going to follow. Lots of people predicted it and it was talked about since 2002 in the markets. Of course, when people are still making 'stupid money' in that sector, everyone tends to ignore the naysayers.
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Post by warriorpride on Aug 27, 2008 18:01:01 GMT -5
From an email in 2006 from the SD: "We currently have 9,200 students in grades two through five and more are on the way as new houses continue to be built. We are on pace to have the two largest high schools in the state with approximately 5,000 students each." IIRC, the projected numbers for peak in HS enrollment was a range, something to the effect of 9,700-10,200. This still seems very realistic, it just might take a few more years to get there. Again, anyone that, in 2005 or 2006, could predict the massive housing slowdown in 2007-2008 (which has obviously slowed down the buildout in 204, and subsequently impacted the enrollment numbers) must literally have a crystal ball. If one applied the .com boom/bust to the housing boom; it would not seem unreasonable that a 'bust' was going to follow. Lots of people predicted it and it was talked about since 2002 in the markets. all that the SLOWDOWN (not STOP) does is buy a little time: reducing the overcrowding in MS & HS this year (and in WV next year) - over time, the markets recover, as will the housing market - thus, the enrollment projections don't change, they just project out a little further now
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Post by wvhsparent on Aug 27, 2008 18:02:34 GMT -5
Not sure what you are inferring by this comment..You've been forthcoming with comments of some others on the list so why hold back with these two now? Because some information comes at a price and without permission I do not disseminate. Fair enough, I hope the info will come out eventually. Good or bad.
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Post by doctorwho on Aug 27, 2008 18:03:36 GMT -5
However the 10,400 number was bogus and known to be so quite a while back- yet it was still in circulation here, on blue and in general conversations very recently. No one was going to attend a 5000 student HS. The original commitee of parents and SD admin had the numbers almost exactly right 5 years ago - for 2009 thru 2012 - yet we chose someone else who it turns out screwed up other districts forecasts also. As 1st and 2nd grade attendances started to drop ( before the economic issues we have today) - some - including those in power ) again brought up split shifts when there was zero danger of these IMHO. As someone Iknowwho hates FUD - thankfully this discussion was short lived as it was silly. Yes the current ( last 12 months ) economics market has caused even further slowdown and no one saw that coming - which is why I believe the March #'s going forward likely will be adjusted downward yet again. From an email in 2006 from the SD: "We currently have 9,200 students in grades two through five and more are on the way as new houses continue to be built. We are on pace to have the two largest high schools in the state with approximately 5,000 students each." IIRC, the projected numbers for peak in HS enrollment was a range, something to the effect of 9,700-10,200. This still seems very realistic, it just might take a few more years to get there. Again, anyone that, in 2005 or 2006, could predict the massive housing slowdown in 2007-2008 (which has obviously slowed down the buildout in 204, and subsequently impacted the enrollment numbers) must literally have a crystal ball. ":IIRC, the projected numbers for peak in HS enrollment was a range, something to the effect of 9,700-10,200. This still seems very realistic, it just might take a few more years to get there." the School Districts own official numbers handed over to PMA FInancial Network, Incin March 2008 ( not mine or anyone else's guesses) show the attendance to be seen as : as a HIGH of 8931 and that is the end of the so called bubble in 2013. You can obtain a copy of this from any SB member- it is public info 8488 in 2009 when split shifts were predicted to be necessary - a scare tactic that was absolutely false and brought up again during the court case in case they were to lose - that was just silly, I am sorry. so they are even a few years out 800 short of the short end of the projectiona and 1500 short of the long end of 10,400. the downturn in the economy -which I absolutely agree with you was hard to see coming - will only lower those numbers - and make the miss bigger if we don't see a turnaround - we will never see 9700-> 1st and 2nd grade have been down 6% each year - 2 years running.
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Post by Arch on Aug 27, 2008 18:03:56 GMT -5
If one applied the .com boom/bust to the housing boom; it would not seem unreasonable that a 'bust' was going to follow. Lots of people predicted it and it was talked about since 2002 in the markets. all that the SLOWDOWN (not STOP) does is buy a little time: reducing the overcrowding in MS & HS this year (and in WV next year) - over time, the markets recover, as will the housing market - thus, the enrollment projections don't change, they just project out a little further now There are jobs gone from this country that are not coming back. Many people in this very area were directly impacted by that. I think it turned down the peak volume a few notches, not just pushed out the same max volume.
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Post by steckdad on Aug 27, 2008 18:05:37 GMT -5
I read gatordog's initial post....I don't think there was any hidden info there. his points were very clear. "However, anyone who thought it was worth pursuing an unprecedented, bizarre, desperate lawsuit shows me very poor political judgment. Such single-issue madness in a person would do the district absolutely no good as a board member, in my opinion" Some who I did talk to thought their voting rights were a matter of principle too and that the switch from the publicized location of the school and subsequent boundaries that were put out to the public BEFORE the vote violated their vote. Popejoy ruled otherwise but the fact remains that many in the group acted on principle. GD's statements above are his opinion and I am curious as to which 'principle' he thinks they violated. I would guess this: "However, for any candidate who was a supporter of this lawsuit, you would have shown me that you wanted to unreasonably circumvent the political process." Now, if the person honestly thought there was a wrong against the community and supported the suit on the principle that they honestly thought the law was being violated against the voters at large; then they're still in the realm of 'madness' ?? I don't think anyone honestly felt their voting rights were violated. I think it was a means to obtain a different outcome to a decision they did not like. just my opinion though. as far as the principal goes, in this case these people were not representing a community but a very small fraction of it that felt they were wronged....I might not label it madness, but I think they made an error in judgment for sure.....
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Post by Arch on Aug 27, 2008 18:05:55 GMT -5
Because some information comes at a price and without permission I do not disseminate. Fair enough, I hope the info will come out eventually. Good or bad. I'm confident that everything eventually comes out in the wash... what with Dad being in the commercial laundry and dry cleaning business for 40 years running...
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Post by doctorwho on Aug 27, 2008 18:06:45 GMT -5
all that the SLOWDOWN (not STOP) does is buy a little time: reducing the overcrowding in MS & HS this year (and in WV next year) - over time, the markets recover, as will the housing market - thus, the enrollment projections don't change, they just project out a little further now There are jobs gone from this country that are not coming back. Many people in this very area were directly impacted by that. I think it turned down the peak volume a few notches, not just pushed out the same max volume. This is my field of expertise - off shoring of American jobs. It's my role in corporate America. What Arch says is true. almost 8M white collar jobs have left for Brazil /India/ SE Asia over the past 7 years - never to return. I can hite an MBA in Brazil for $600-$700 / month - what executive is not going to sign their life away for that ? It's very sad, and I hate it but it's true. This didn;t start yesterday and won't end tomorrow. the return of the housing market,if ever to previous levels, is a long way off
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Post by warriorpride on Aug 27, 2008 18:10:48 GMT -5
From an email in 2006 from the SD: "We currently have 9,200 students in grades two through five and more are on the way as new houses continue to be built. We are on pace to have the two largest high schools in the state with approximately 5,000 students each." IIRC, the projected numbers for peak in HS enrollment was a range, something to the effect of 9,700-10,200. This still seems very realistic, it just might take a few more years to get there. Again, anyone that, in 2005 or 2006, could predict the massive housing slowdown in 2007-2008 (which has obviously slowed down the buildout in 204, and subsequently impacted the enrollment numbers) must literally have a crystal ball. ":IIRC, the projected numbers for peak in HS enrollment was a range, something to the effect of 9,700-10,200. This still seems very realistic, it just might take a few more years to get there." the School Districts own official numbers handed over to PMA FInancial Network, Incin March 2008 ( not mine or anyone else's guesses) show the attendance to be seen as : as a HIGH of 8931 and that is the end of the so called bubble in 2013. You can obtain a copy of this from any SB member- it is public info 8488 in 2009 when split shifts were predicted to be necessary - a scare tactic that was absolutely false and brought up again during the court case in case they were to lose - that was just silly, I am sorry. so they are even a few years out 800 short of the short end of the projectiona and 1500 short of the long end of 10,400. the downturn in the economy -which I absolutely agree with you was hard to see coming - will only lower those numbers - and make the miss bigger if we don't see a turnaround - we will never see 9700-> 1st and 2nd grade have been down 6% each year - 2 years running. Well, I don't understand that, since the enrollment numbers that I have from last winter show that there would be over 9200 in HS
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Post by Arch on Aug 27, 2008 18:12:55 GMT -5
":IIRC, the projected numbers for peak in HS enrollment was a range, something to the effect of 9,700-10,200. This still seems very realistic, it just might take a few more years to get there." the School Districts own official numbers handed over to PMA FInancial Network, Incin March 2008 ( not mine or anyone else's guesses) show the attendance to be seen as : as a HIGH of 8931 and that is the end of the so called bubble in 2013. You can obtain a copy of this from any SB member- it is public info 8488 in 2009 when split shifts were predicted to be necessary - a scare tactic that was absolutely false and brought up again during the court case in case they were to lose - that was just silly, I am sorry. so they are even a few years out 800 short of the short end of the projectiona and 1500 short of the long end of 10,400. the downturn in the economy -which I absolutely agree with you was hard to see coming - will only lower those numbers - and make the miss bigger if we don't see a turnaround - we will never see 9700-> 1st and 2nd grade have been down 6% each year - 2 years running. Well, I don't understand that, since the enrollment numbers that I have from last winter show that there would be over 9200 in HS ... and a lot of people also vacated the area since then when the (*$# hit the fan in the housing market because their job went bye bye and they could not tap into equity that is no longer there to sustain living here.
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Post by warriorpride on Aug 27, 2008 18:13:57 GMT -5
There are jobs gone from this country that are not coming back. Many people in this very area were directly impacted by that. I think it turned down the peak volume a few notches, not just pushed out the same max volume. This is my field of expertise - off shoring of American jobs. It's my role in corporate America. What Arch says is true. almost 8M white collar jobs have left for Brazil /India/ SE Asia over the past 7 years - never to return. I can hite an MBA in Brazil for $600-$700 / month - what executive is not going to sign their life away for that ? It's very sad, and I hate it but it's true. This didn;t start yesterday and won't end tomorrow. the return of the housing market,if ever to previous levels, is a long way off I'm no fan of the outsourcing/global-sourcing/geo-sourcing either. But, the housing market doesn't have to come back with a bang for there to be more houses built here, bringing in more students to 204.
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Post by warriorpride on Aug 27, 2008 18:17:18 GMT -5
Well, I don't understand that, since the enrollment numbers that I have from last winter show that there would be over 9200 in HS ... and a lot of people also vacated the area since then when the (*$# hit the fan in the housing market because their job went bye bye and they could not tap into equity that is no longer there to sustain living here. You're telling us that the equivalent of families accounting for ~300 kids that were enrolled in 204 have moved away since the winter AND those houses are all sitting empty right now? hard to believe - and, again impossibe to believe that this could have been predicted if it's true
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Post by Arch on Aug 27, 2008 18:19:00 GMT -5
This is my field of expertise - off shoring of American jobs. It's my role in corporate America. What Arch says is true. almost 8M white collar jobs have left for Brazil /India/ SE Asia over the past 7 years - never to return. I can hite an MBA in Brazil for $600-$700 / month - what executive is not going to sign their life away for that ? It's very sad, and I hate it but it's true. This didn;t start yesterday and won't end tomorrow. the return of the housing market,if ever to previous levels, is a long way off I'm no fan of the outsourcing/global-sourcing/geo-sourcing either. But, the housing market doesn't have to come back with a bang for there to be more houses built here, bringing in more students to 204. There has to be good paying jobs to support out in the 'burbs' with food/gas prices where they are and the bite that has into one's monthly budget. As the jobs go, the good pay goes and it gets more expensive to have kids and as a result, people tend to have less.
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Post by Arch on Aug 27, 2008 18:19:42 GMT -5
... and a lot of people also vacated the area since then when the (*$# hit the fan in the housing market because their job went bye bye and they could not tap into equity that is no longer there to sustain living here. You're telling us that the equivalent of families accounting for ~300 kids that were enrolled in 204 have moved away since the winter AND those houses are all sitting empty right now? hard to believe - and, again impossibe to believe that this could have been predicted if it's true You are assuming that everyone who buys a house has or wants kids. However, tell us where they went then....
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Post by warriorpride on Aug 27, 2008 18:24:40 GMT -5
You're telling us that the equivalent of families accounting for ~300 kids that were enrolled in 204 have moved away since the winter AND those houses are all sitting empty right now? hard to believe - and, again impossibe to believe that this could have been predicted if it's true You are assuming that everyone who buys a house has or wants kids. However, tell us where they went then.... dunno - I just don't see lots of people buying 3-4-5 bedroom houses in "family friendly" Naperville without typically having, or planning for, kids
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