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Post by gatordog on Aug 31, 2009 11:55:43 GMT -5
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Post by gatordog on Aug 31, 2009 12:14:08 GMT -5
I was interested in seeing the change in enrollment from one school yr to the next btw 8th and 9th grade.
To be consistant, I will take the start of the school year number. Looking at some previous enrollment reports:
2007/08 8th grade = 2361 2008/09 9th grade = 2314 very little change
2008/09 8th grade = 2357 2009/10 9th grade = 2341 (not same enrollment report as others..."6th day" one) very little change
It looks like any students moving away or switching to private HS are pretty much balanced by those coming in.
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Post by warriorpride on Aug 31, 2009 20:34:25 GMT -5
I was interested in seeing the change in enrollment from one school yr to the next btw 8th and 9th grade. To be consistant, I will take the start of the school year number. Looking at some previous enrollment reports: 2007/08 8th grade = 2361 2008/09 9th grade = 2314 very little change 2008/09 8th grade = 2357 2009/10 9th grade = 2341 (not same enrollment report as others..."6th day" one) very little change It looks like any students moving away or switching to private HS are pretty much balanced by those coming in. Thanks GD. So using these numbers, if the enrollment numbers in the pipeline stay relatively constant from the elementary level as they move up and into HS (that's an assumption I'm making, which would need to be verified), there will 9000+ students in HS starting next year, and continuing for at least 6 more years after that. 7 years isn't a 'bubble", nor would any sort of "temporary" solution be acceptable to accomodating 9000+ kids across NV and WV. I don't know what Paul White's "options" would be, but they would probably only work in Fantasyland. ETA: Oh, and since some people made a big scene about K enrollment dropping last year, note that the 2009/2010 K enrollment is up 64 from last year - another indication that the alleged enrollment "bubble" is nowhere to be seen.
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Post by asmodeus on Aug 31, 2009 22:29:29 GMT -5
Well, considering we've already accommodated over 9,000 across NV and WV, I'd say one option was standing pat. Another was to add on to NV.
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Post by gatordog on Aug 31, 2009 22:43:22 GMT -5
..... if the enrollment numbers in the pipeline stay relatively constant from the elementary level as they move up and into HS (that's an assumption I'm making, which would need to be verified), there will 9000+ students in HS starting next year, and continuing for at least 6 more years after that. 7 years isn't a 'bubble", nor would any sort of "temporary" solution be acceptable to accomodating 9000+ kids across NV and WV. I don't know what Paul White's "options" would be, but they would probably only work in Fantasyland. ....... I too just do not see how people --the Paul Whites of the world---say we wont be seeing around 9000 HS students. And for a significant period of time. Add up those 4 yr chunks, and thats what you get. I really wish somebody would explain it. My thought was maybe there was some big drop off switching to private high schools btw MS to HS. But the last couple of yrs does not show much evidence of that happening on a large scale--nothing that would knock off hundreds from the class size.
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Post by gatordog on Aug 31, 2009 22:48:35 GMT -5
[ Well, considering we've already accommodated over 9,000 across NV and WV, I'd say one option was standing pat. Another was to add on to NV. We never had combined HS enrollments of 9000 when we only had two HSs.
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Post by warriorpride on Sept 1, 2009 6:11:31 GMT -5
Well, considering we've already accommodated over 9,000 across NV and WV, I'd say one option was standing pat. Another was to add on to NV. When was this? As far as I know, HS numbers have been increasing every year - there has never been a drop - and we're at 8867 right now. Last year HS enrollment was 8522 in Sept, and WV was basically at capacity (over capacity if you take into consideration that the freshman class was over 1,000) and NV was over capacity. Where's the plan to show how NV could be expanded to handle necessary number of kids (in 3 more years, with no growth, HS enrollment will be in the 9250 range), plus the necessary staff? If WV would be "full" with 4000 (3k and main campus and 1k at Gold), then NV would need to be expanded to hold more than 5,000 kids. Let's see, 5250/4 = ~1300 per grade (ask the admin, students or staff how pleasant they think NV Blue would be with 600 more kids - plus the necessary staff - than last year). Oops, NV Gold would have to be expanded too, since its capacity is 1000. Then NV would need to be expanded to handle 900 more kids. Mind you, this is all in the no-growth model - these 9200+ HS kids are all real, and will be here in a few years. What if there's even a little growth (let's say 100 per grade)? Then we overcrowd WV and NV AFTER ADDING ON TO BOTH NV GOLD AND NV BLUE? ?
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Post by asmodeus on Sept 1, 2009 8:04:05 GMT -5
My mistake...I meant to say "almost" 9000 instead of "over" 9000.
How much of a "plan" would you have needed to build a 600 student addition to NV?
As much as people don't like to admit it, there ARE advantages to "mega" schools. Competition for certain teams or clubs may be more intense, but there are also more course offerings.
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doc
Frosh
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Post by doc on Sept 1, 2009 8:32:53 GMT -5
Well, considering we've already accommodated over 9,000 across NV and WV, I'd say one option was standing pat. Another was to add on to NV. When was this? As far as I know, HS numbers have been increasing every year - there has never been a drop - and we're at 8867 right now. Last year HS enrollment was 8522 in Sept, and WV was basically at capacity (over capacity if you take into consideration that the freshman class was over 1,000) and NV was over capacity. Where's the plan to show how NV could be expanded to handle necessary number of kids (in 3 more years, with no growth, HS enrollment will be in the 9250 range), plus the necessary staff? If WV would be "full" with 4000 (3k and main campus and 1k at Gold), then NV would need to be expanded to hold more than 5,000 kids. Let's see, 5250/4 = ~1300 per grade (ask the admin, students or staff how pleasant they think NV Blue would be with 600 more kids - plus the necessary staff - than last year). Oops, NV Gold would have to be expanded too, since its capacity is 1000. Then NV would need to be expanded to handle 900 more kids. Mind you, this is all in the no-growth model - these 9200+ HS kids are all real, and will be here in a few years. What if there's even a little growth (let's say 100 per grade)? Then we overcrowd WV and NV AFTER ADDING ON TO BOTH NV GOLD AND NV BLUE? ? "Where's the plan to show how NV could be expanded to handle necessary number of kids (in 3 more years, with no growth, HS enrollment will be in the 9250 range"glad you asked- the complete quote for a work estimate was delivered to the SB -SD on 3/17/04 by ATSR Architects & Engineers. Document called High School Additons and Alterations to Accomodate 3600 students.It not only increased the classrooms- but had drivers ed additions / locker expansion & alterations/ cafeteria alterations / site midifcations and work to ease the hallway crowding due to current desgin. Total Cost : $12,885,517. It is available on PDF on blue...anytime you'd like to review
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Post by warriorpride on Sept 1, 2009 8:49:34 GMT -5
When was this? As far as I know, HS numbers have been increasing every year - there has never been a drop - and we're at 8867 right now. Last year HS enrollment was 8522 in Sept, and WV was basically at capacity (over capacity if you take into consideration that the freshman class was over 1,000) and NV was over capacity. Where's the plan to show how NV could be expanded to handle necessary number of kids (in 3 more years, with no growth, HS enrollment will be in the 9250 range), plus the necessary staff? If WV would be "full" with 4000 (3k and main campus and 1k at Gold), then NV would need to be expanded to hold more than 5,000 kids. Let's see, 5250/4 = ~1300 per grade (ask the admin, students or staff how pleasant they think NV Blue would be with 600 more kids - plus the necessary staff - than last year). Oops, NV Gold would have to be expanded too, since its capacity is 1000. Then NV would need to be expanded to handle 900 more kids. Mind you, this is all in the no-growth model - these 9200+ HS kids are all real, and will be here in a few years. What if there's even a little growth (let's say 100 per grade)? Then we overcrowd WV and NV AFTER ADDING ON TO BOTH NV GOLD AND NV BLUE? ? "Where's the plan to show how NV could be expanded to handle necessary number of kids (in 3 more years, with no growth, HS enrollment will be in the 9250 range"glad you asked- the complete quote for a work estimate was delivered to the SB -SD on 3/17/04 by ATSR Architects & Engineers. Document called High School Additons and Alterations to Accomodate 3600 students.It not only increased the classrooms- but had drivers ed additions / locker expansion & alterations/ cafeteria alterations / site midifcations and work to ease the hallway crowding due to current desgin. Total Cost : $12,885,517. It is available on PDF on blue...anytime you'd like to review Sorry, I don't read blue - there's some really angry people over there. Would that cost estimate have applied today? I doubt it. What assumptions were made? What was/wasn't included? And where's the estimate to built on to NV Gold? And, of course, this is all to 1) just handle the no-growth scenario AND 2) to put the building at full capacity in the no-growth scenario. Please don't try to pretend that $13M was all that was needed. Besides what I've listed above, another MS would have to be built AND the cost of the land accounted for (since everyone wants to double-count the land cost when complaining about the cost of MV, I'm making sure that it's accounted for here, too). And, as much as you and a few others cannot seem to accept it, the Mustang train has left the station.
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Post by asmodeus on Sept 1, 2009 9:05:45 GMT -5
We have accepted that the train has left the station. We're just pointing out that there were other options.
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Post by wvhsparent on Sept 1, 2009 9:52:11 GMT -5
We have accepted that the train has left the station. We're just pointing out that there were other options. Yes there were other options.....they were reviewed discussed and eventually not chosen. Not everyone will ever like the decisons made.
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Post by momto4 on Sept 1, 2009 10:01:10 GMT -5
We have accepted that the train has left the station. We're just pointing out that there were other options. But to what end? We are where we are now, so let's accept and move forward.
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Post by warriorpride on Sept 1, 2009 10:06:27 GMT -5
We have accepted that the train has left the station. We're just pointing out that there were other options. Not sure who you're speaking for, but there are some that have not accepted it.
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Post by gatordog on Sept 1, 2009 10:17:10 GMT -5
..... We're just pointing out that there were other options. Yes there were other options.....they were reviewed discussed and eventually not chosen. Not everyone will ever like the decisons made. We are discussing enrollment in this thread. I think the discussion of options, which as obviously pointed out, has already been decided upon and executed, is getting this thread off track. Here is an enrollment comment: Look at the K class, the Class of 2022. Add up the enrollments of the feeder ES's. I will approximate Owen as MV feeder, Gombert as WV feeder, and Peterson (without all the Ashwood growth, yet) as NV feeder. NV feed (8 ESs): 710 students MV feed (7 ESs): 734 students WV feed (6 ESs): 588 students In the far future, could demographics switch so that its MV that has the largest graduating class? Are we seeing evidence of this right now? I have a hunch this has to do with older neighborhoods in the north, people reaching retirment, moving away, selling homes to younger couples, and so on. This is interesting to me: maybe we should not assume that NV will always be the biggest school. I know I am just looking at one class worth. But maybe this is the time frame when NV Gold might close....when today's K are near graduation? Of course this is all with zero growth, which is a tough assumption to make over the course of a dozen yrs)
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