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Post by WeNeed3 on Sept 19, 2008 7:43:52 GMT -5
These values were also based on each school's 2006 report card. If the 4700 and 3800 numbers are correct, we have approx. 570 more students at NV this year and 311 more students at WV which would make the results even lower.
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Post by doctorwho on Sept 19, 2008 8:36:36 GMT -5
Some enrollment numbers were given at the IPPC meeting today. Enrollment is up 500 from last year..... 4700 at NV and 3800 at WV (these include Frontier) Looks like people are still flocking here despite the bad economy. Hope they stay on track for 2009 opening as this can't come fast enough. It's not people flocking here, it's in the pipeline bubble of kids already in the system. From March SD financial projections these numbers mesh Enrollment to start last year was 8165 so up 335 and as projected based on kids in the system. In March the SD-SB said there would be 8488 in HS this year ( and the above numbers are 8500 )- so we now are seeing the real numbers ( not 10,400) pan out. One has to assume then that the forecast from their March meeting will hold true -- H S. peaking @ 8931 in 2013 before declining based on what is flowing through the system today. 1500 less than the NIU 'projection', and a few years further out.
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Post by gatordog on Sept 19, 2008 10:00:31 GMT -5
It's not people flocking here, it's in the pipeline bubble of kids already in the system. .... I-- H S. peaking @ 8931 in 2013 before declining based on what is flowing through the system today. drwho, I am not seeing a "bubble". What do you mean by declining after 2013? Looks pretty steady to me, with just kids in the pipeline. For the the 2012-2013 school yr, last yrs 7th graders start showing up in HS. For kids younger than that....where do you see a bubble? From districts Enrollment Report 2007/2008, dated 6/12/08, enrollments were: Gr Enroll 07/08 1 2200 2 2331 3 2246 4 2300 5 2215 6 2292 7 2359 Look at the class of 2016. The 4th,3rd, 2nd, 1st graders from above data. That would project to HS enrollment of 9077 (with zero growth) Who knows, maybe their will be a bubble in 20 23. But I dont see it by 2013, as you are saying.
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Post by momto4 on Sept 19, 2008 13:47:20 GMT -5
According to Dr. D, cohort regression shows numbers are up indicating we're still growing, with no indication of "bubbles" in enrollment. This is apparently the number of kids moving from one grade to the next within the system.
I am still comfortable with the idea of providing sufficient space and opportunities for students throughout the district in all grade levels even if enrollment growth has slowed some with the economy.
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Post by warriorpride on Sept 19, 2008 14:39:04 GMT -5
According to Dr. D, cohort regression shows numbers are up indicating we're still growing, with no indication of "bubbles" in enrollment. This is apparently the number of kids moving from one grade to the next within the system. I am still comfortable with the idea of providing sufficient space and opportunities for students throughout the district in all grade levels even if enrollment growth has slowed some with the economy. When I look at the Jun 08 enrollment number (sure, I'd like to see the details of 08-9 numbers, too) I see that the current Junior and Senior classes will be replaced by 2 classes that are 545 larger. Sure, some kids go to private HS, but some kids come out of private 8th grade and go into public HS - and anything near a 500 increase in HS enrollment over the next 2 years is certainly a significant increase. To argue or discuss capacities or bubbles at this point doesnt seem to be particularly valuable.
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