doc
Frosh
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Post by doc on Aug 13, 2009 14:01:28 GMT -5
Yes, but wouldn't that be spread evenly acrosss all ages? I don't see why there would be more families with Juniors and Seniors moving out than those with Freshmen. acknowledged that - just one factor - but also think about this - job losses have been very heavy in the over50 age group ( and re-employment harder) - I do think that is a factor with why HS age movement may be more prevalent.
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Post by gatordog on Aug 13, 2009 17:52:16 GMT -5
Not sure why some are getting into total enrollments and long term projections......warriormom started this thread with a particular question about ONE class. (She seemed to have sneaking suspicion of where this might go!)
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Post by gatordog on Aug 13, 2009 18:25:21 GMT -5
just another way of approximating Freshman class size for this thread.
I looked at last-years 8th graders, now going to NV and WV: Crone-416 Gregory-382 Scullen-467 Granger-382 (small fraction) Still- 377 (large fraction)
I will use 5th grade enrollments to estimate the splits: Scullen % to NV = (87 Pet + 134 Wel)/(87+134+97 WE +156 Fry) = 47% Scullen % to WV = 53% Granger % to WV = 117 Stk/(117 + 115 Brk +106 Y) = 35% Still % to MV = (97*0.2 Gom + 100 *0.7 Owen)/(97+100+105 Gt +105Mc)= 22% Still% to WV = 78%.
minor notes on the splits: I assumed all of Peterson goes to NV, some part goes to WV. Also, I ignored the Granger component (I believe from Cowlishaw) from apt/townhome west of New York and Commons. I wasnt interested in refining the split estimate to that level.
Then
NV class of '13= 416 Crone + 382 Greg + 467*0.47 Scull = 1017. WV class of '13= 377*0.78 Still + 386*0.35 Grang + 467*0.53 Scull= 677
edit: that leaves MV Class of '13 = 663
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doc
Frosh
Posts: 0
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Post by doc on Aug 13, 2009 19:09:33 GMT -5
Not sure why some are getting into total enrollments and long term projections......warriormom started this thread with a particular question about ONE class. (She seemed to have sneaking suspicion of where this might go!) If one is interested in freshman projections for 09/10 - then why wouldn't other years be of equal interest? Current and future size affect staffing/ course offerings and operating expenses for all 3 HS's.. I do not see any provocative posts - just facts. Did I miss something ?
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Post by warriormom on Aug 13, 2009 21:06:11 GMT -5
Not sure why some are getting into total enrollments and long term projections......warriormom started this thread with a particular question about ONE class. (She seemed to have sneaking suspicion of where this might go!) Like I said in my initial post, I just wanted to know freshman class sizes (honestly only care about WV as that is where my son is) but thought that would seem selfish so I asked for all 3. Carry on.
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Post by gatordog on Aug 13, 2009 21:20:27 GMT -5
I should finish the job with my estimates... of the 2357 8th graders last year, if the other estimates hold, then that leaves 663 at MV for their class of '13.
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