doc
Frosh
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Post by doc on Sept 30, 2009 22:39:37 GMT -5
The 9263 figure for grades 4 through 7 came directly from Kathy Birkett at a recent IPPC meeting. This is "official" enough for me as I do not believe she would lie about something like that. Right, but based on the trends of recent years, there may be around 100 less by the time they get to HS. But, that's still over 9100 AND that's still with no growth. great - would you agree that the Super and Assistant Super would both have to sign off on official enrollment projections and financials as filed by PMA Financial Network Inc ? You know the ones ued to forecast budget and state reimbursements ? If so explain CUSD 204 submitting 8816 for 2011 8898 for 2012 and 8931 for 2013. So KB may have said 9263 in the pipeline but the district which included her submitted a different number for what # they predict will reach HS. Again the document is a public doc - ask someone to see it. btw - the 'official' filed 204 docs for 5-8th grade ( the 4 year period to HS) was registered as 2007 - 9173 2008 9231 2009 9292 2010 9260 SO, the fallout from 5th thru 8th - to actually reaching our HS's is a much higher than the predictions here ( 3 times the 100 suggested here) - since the highest proj HS attendance is 8931 in 2013 Again, not my math but that of the SD - the devil's in the details.
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doc
Frosh
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Post by doc on Sept 30, 2009 22:41:40 GMT -5
I sure as hell hope so. Then there will be less of the people who feel the need to complain about anything and everything with this district (both past and present). Also, maybe the hyperbole will subside as well. You call it an "exodus." I doubt it will happen but if it does, I'll call it "addition by subtraction." We'll miss you too !
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Post by warriorpride on Sept 30, 2009 22:58:36 GMT -5
Right, but based on the trends of recent years, there may be around 100 less by the time they get to HS. But, that's still over 9100 AND that's still with no growth. great - would you agree that the Super and Assistant Super would both have to sign off on official enrollment projections and financials as filed by PMA Financial Network Inc ? You know the ones ued to forecast budget and state reimbursements ? If so explain CUSD 204 submitting 8816 for 2011 8898 for 2012 and 8931 for 2013. So KB may have said 9263 in the pipeline but the district which included her submitted a different number for what # they predict will reach HS. Again the document is a public doc - ask someone to see it. btw - the 'official' filed 204 docs for 5-8th grade ( the 4 year period to HS) was registered as 2007 - 9173 2008 9231 2009 9292 2010 9260 SO, the fallout from 5th thru 8th - to actually reaching our HS's is a much higher than the predictions here ( 3 times the 100 suggested here) - since the highest proj HS attendance is 8931 in 2013 Again, not my math but that of the SD - the devil's in the details. Thanks doc. I don't understand the math, but it wouldnt be the first time. What do you suggest that we do now?
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Post by asmodeus on Oct 1, 2009 7:39:38 GMT -5
In other words, you and chicoryowl would like green to be a homogenous community of self-congratulation. I participate on both blue and green because I like to hear both sides, not just the school-board-has-never-made-a-mistake" mantra espoused here.
I stand by my comments that the education funding in D204 is woefully inadequate for the taxes collected. A quick look at the per pupil spending of various areas:
$9,200 D204 $9,400 Waukegan $9,900 Illinois State Average $9,900 Cary-Grove $10,200 D203 $11,000 Chicago Public Schools $11,700 Orland Park $13,700 Elk Grove Village $14,900 Des Plaines $14,900 Park Ridge
People like to say we're getting great "value" in that our test scores and graduation rates are comparable to some of these areas despite the disparity in funding. I would agree with this sentiment if my taxes were 50% less, but they're not. We're paying for a Mercedes but getting a Toyota. A Toyota is a respectable car that can get you from Point A to Point B just as well as the Mercedes, and some would consider a Mercedes wasteful and extravagant. And similarly, one can debate whether other districts are overspending while we are being frugal. But why are we PAYING for the Mercedes? This area, up until the recent downturn, has been an economic juggernaut. Yet our taxes are more in line with areas that have absolutely no commercial base.
Yes, it was my mistake moving to this area not fully realizing how such a large area of undeveloped land and new growth would wreak havoc on this school system's finances, and it would have been much better to move into a more mature community. Live and learn.
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Post by warriormom on Oct 1, 2009 8:01:23 GMT -5
In other words, you and chicoryowl would like green to be a homogenous community of self-congratulation. I participate on both blue and green because I like to hear both sides, not just the school-board-has-never-made-a-mistake" mantra espoused here. I stand by my comments that the education funding in D204 is woefully inadequate for the taxes collected. A quick look at the per pupil spending of various areas: $9,200 D204 $9,400 Waukegan $9,900 Illinois State Average $9,900 Cary-Grove $10,200 D203 $11,000 Chicago Public Schools $11,700 Orland Park $13,700 Elk Grove Village $14,900 Des Plaines $14,900 Park Ridge People like to say we're getting great "value" in that our test scores and graduation rates are comparable to some of these areas despite the disparity in funding. I would agree with this sentiment if my taxes were 50% less, but they're not. We're paying for a Mercedes but getting a Toyota. A Toyota is a respectable car that can get you from Point A to Point B just as well as the Mercedes, and some would consider a Mercedes wasteful and extravagant. And similarly, one can debate whether other districts are overspending while we are being frugal. But why are we PAYING for the Mercedes? This area, up until the recent downturn, has been an economic juggernaut. Yet our taxes are more in line with areas that have absolutely no commercial base. Yes, it was my mistake moving to this area not fully realizing how such a large area of undeveloped land and new growth would wreak havoc on this school system's finances, and it would have been much better to move into a more mature community. Live and learn. excellent point. I've learned the same lesson. We are paying MORE for the same or less. That doesn't sit right with me. If our SD prides itself on getting the most value with our education monies (resulting in the cost per pupil being lower than surrounding areas) then why are we paying so much MORE in taxes than surrounding areas??? Lets face it; they spent recklessly with taxpayer monies after they 'convinced' us we needed a third highschool. I fell for it hook-line-and sinker. There is nothing we can do about it now, BUT we CAN be vigilant that we will not allow them to spend so recklessly in the future.
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Post by justvote on Oct 1, 2009 11:05:07 GMT -5
Doc - is your 300 student drop off based on what has historically occurred or are you making that assumption based on the "official" figure of 8900? The reason I ask is that KB made that comment in the context that "contrary" to information out there, the high school numbers will be increasing and not decreasing over the next many years (maybe not her exact words, but pretty close). It didn't sound like she was anticipating that much of a drop off. With additional growth that is currently occurring in the SW & SE areas of our district, I honestly would be very suprised if there's that much fall off in 2 - 5 years. I know some choose private high school, but there are also some who come back into the system from private school after 8th grade.
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Arwen
Master Member
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Post by Arwen on Oct 1, 2009 13:03:56 GMT -5
In other words, you and chicoryowl would like green to be a homogenous community of self-congratulation. I participate on both blue and green because I like to hear both sides, not just the school-board-has-never-made-a-mistake" mantra espoused here. Homogenous? No. Self-congratulation? I don't think so. I am often critical of the way things are handled in 204. I just don't see the point of endlessly rehashing whether we should have built MV. It's built. It's not going to get un-built. What's the point of bringing it up over and over and over again? We know that doc and arch and macrockett aren't happy with the decision. If I wanted to read about how they are unhappy every single day, I'd read blue. I've been very happy that we could discuss other things without it always turning into a discussion about how May Watts got screwed or how MV is going to blow up or a zillion I told you so's about the enrollment projections. I get it. I understood their view points the first 100 times they were posted. I don't need to read about it anymore. Thank you.
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Post by gatordog on Oct 1, 2009 13:28:14 GMT -5
......your 300 student drop off based on what has historically occurred or are you making that assumption based on the "official" figure of 8900? .... First off, the 8900 number (8931 to be exact) is a projection for Fiscal Year 2013. One that was presented to SB on March 4, 2008. We will not know the exact actual 2012-13 school year enrollment....until that time comes. Note, this same projection from Spring 2008 predicted 8650 HS enrollment for this school year, so they did underpredict a bit with this projection. Justvote, you ask about historical drop-off. I dont know the answer. But here is the drop off from this school year compared to last. 09-10 School year. From published 6th day enrollment report: 10th-2307, 9th-2341, 8th-2316, 7th-2240 08-09 School year. From enrollment report, 10/2/08: 9th-2314, 8th-2357, 7th-2312, 6th-2248 For this particular year, there is virtually no net drop off. Maybe this is unusual year with economy keeping some in public schools? Certainly, new boundaries coming into effect also made this an unusual year.
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Post by gatordog on Oct 1, 2009 15:09:41 GMT -5
Does anyone know what the totals were for grades 4-7 when this year's 9-12 were in those grades? not strictly the question you are asking here, but its the same idea.... When this year's 9-12 were in 5-8 grade (the 05-06 school year): the 5-8 enrollment was 8990. Per reported actual numbers on the March 2008 Projection table. momto4 mentioned today HS enroll of 8784....so this suggest drop-off of ~200 total, or 50 per class. (Maybe the 6th day enrollment---given as 8930 Total High School-- was a little high? or maybe its a different count...which is is ncluding Indian Plains and some special ed numbers, etc? )
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Post by gatordog on Oct 1, 2009 15:18:46 GMT -5
Carry it back further:
2004-05 gr 5-8 = 8801....then 2008-09 gr 9-12=8522
about 300 drop-off for 4 yr group.
Also 2003-04 gr 5-8 = 8375....then 2007-08 gr 9-12=8044
again, about 300 drop-off for 4 yr group.
So looks like there is some history of approx 300 drop-off for a 4yr group.
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Post by asmodeus on Oct 1, 2009 15:38:55 GMT -5
I was thinking some more about the per pupil expenditure disparities. If D204 chose to spend the same amount per student as Elk Grove Village or Des Plaines, it would cost an additional $130+ million PER YEAR! Think about that for a minute...those and other comparable districts are outspending us by the equivalent of a new MVHS every single year. With lower taxes.
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Post by justvote on Oct 1, 2009 16:59:15 GMT -5
Carry it back further: 2004-05 gr 5-8 = 8801....then 2008-09 gr 9-12=8522 about 300 drop-off for 4 yr group. Also 2003-04 gr 5-8 = 8375....then 2007-08 gr 9-12=8044 again, about 300 drop-off for 4 yr group. So looks like there is some history of approx 300 drop-off for a 4yr group. So it looks like Doc may be right - that 300 is a fairly realistic drop off number.
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Post by gatordog on Oct 1, 2009 17:33:16 GMT -5
just for completeness, since I have the data at hand, let me give one more year. Last one I have available. Use actual enrollments from the March 08 enroll and projection doc.
2002-03 gr 5-8 = 7953....then 2006-07 gr 9-12=7846
total drop-off of about 100.
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Post by gatordog on Nov 11, 2009 13:12:15 GMT -5
When this year's 9-12 were in 5-8 grade (the 05-06 school year): the 5-8 enrollment was 8990. Per reported actual numbers on the March 2008 Projection table. momto4 mentioned today HS enroll of 8784....so this suggest drop-off of ~200 total, or 50 per class. (Maybe the 6th day enrollment---given as 8930 Total High School-- was a little high? or maybe its a different count...which is is ncluding Indian Plains and some special ed numbers, etc? ) Final 0910 Enrollment numbers (9/30/09) show 8964 HS enrollment. Moving forward drop-off for this year was very small. Less than 10 per class net.
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