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Post by gatordog on Sept 14, 2009 16:51:38 GMT -5
This is a followup, really, to the future enrollments for the three HSs I did previously. I was curious as to how the MS enrollments also projected. And I had the spreadsheet pretty much ready, from the HS work. This again uses the "Six Day Enrollment" numbers previously posted. This simply takes the classes, down to K, and projects them into their appropriate MS. Projection stops with today's K reaching 6 th grade. So, naturally, one big assumption here is assumes zero future growth.The only assumptions I made was I ignored two "splits" from ES to MS: I ignored the Peterson part (S of 111st and W of 248th) that goes to Crone, and just assumed they all go to Scullen. I ignored the Cowlishaw part (townhomes off 75th and W of 59) that goes to Still and just assumed they all go to Hill. One comment: I think these are THE ONLY splits from ES to MS. The only ones I could see. Otherwise its very straightforward: 3 ESs feeding each MS. I didnt figure out the 2011-12 school yr, just because it didnt fit so directly in my spreadsheet, using ES enrollments. I decide that it was worth it and I did it to figure out the 2010-11 projection (from today's 7th, 6th, and 5th graders) since I figured the current MS enrollment could be a bit skewed since some 8th graders did have choice if their area was re-boundaried. (maybe a minor point...just wanted to explain the "hole" in the table) MS Projection results: sch yr 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
| Hill 890 889
927 907 885 914
| Grang 835 886
965 1008 990 969
| Still 760 822
848 825 792 783
| Fisch 998 1005
996 947 947 939
| Scull 1113 1024
1109 1141 1027 995
| Greg 1037 989
951 910 845 807
| Crone 1217 1206
1105 1017 954 830
| TOT 6870 6821
6901 6755 6440 6237
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Post by WeNeed3 on Sept 14, 2009 20:22:13 GMT -5
This is a followup, really, to the future enrollments for the three HSs I did previously. I was curious as to how the MS enrollments also projected. And I had the spreadsheet pretty much ready, from the HS work. This again uses the "Six Day Enrollment" numbers previously posted. This simply takes the classes, down to K, and projects them into their appropriate MS. Projection stops with today's K reaching 6 th grade. So, naturally, one big assumption here is assumes zero future growth.The only assumptions I made was I ignored two "splits" from ES to MS: I ignored the Peterson part (S of 111st and W of 248th) that goes to Crone, and just assumed they all go to Scullen. I ignored the Cowlishaw part (townhomes off 75th and W of 59) that goes to Still and just assumed they all go to Hill. One comment: I think these are THE ONLY splits from ES to MS. The only ones I could see. Otherwise its very straightforward: 3 ESs feeding each MS. I didnt figure out the 2011-12 school yr, just because it didnt fit so directly in my spreadsheet, using ES enrollments. I decide that it was worth it and I did it to figure out the 2010-11 projection (from today's 7th, 6th, and 5th graders) since I figured the current MS enrollment could be a bit skewed since some 8th graders did have choice if their area was re-boundaried. (maybe a minor point...just wanted to explain the "hole" in the table) MS Projection results: sch yr 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
| Hill 890 889
927 907 885 914
| Grang 835 886
965 1008 990 969
| Still 760 822
848 825 792 783
| Fisch 998 1005
996 947 947 939
| Scull 1113 1024
1109 1141 1027 995
| Greg 1037 989
951 910 845 807
| Crone 1217 1206
1105 1017 954 830
| TOT 6870 6821
6901 6755 6440 6237
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I wonder how the current shift in housing prices will affect younger families moving into the area. I know my neighborhood was getting really old as my daughter has hardly anyone to babysit that is young. However, I know the last three houses to sell by me all have young kids ready to go into elementary school/ mom is pregnant etc. and the ones that moved out are empty nesters/kids in college or high school.
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Post by southsidesignmaker on Sept 14, 2009 23:09:51 GMT -5
The totals are quite a bit lighter than I would have anticipated. This is especially true at the 2014-2016 range. Crone losing almost 400 students in 7 years?
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Post by WeNeed3 on Sept 15, 2009 6:51:42 GMT -5
It is interesting that the northern and central MS's gain in attendance while the southern ones lose. GD's analysis means no growth from construction. I would think by 2015-16, new construction will be continuing again in the south and increasing some of those southern numbers.
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Post by justvote on Sept 15, 2009 8:05:22 GMT -5
There will almost certainly be growth in the south. The Bolingbrook area has quite a bit of undeveloped land that will, in all probability, be developed over the next 5-10 years. Land west of 248th ave is developing slowly, but there are homes being built & hopefully the housing market will turn around and that will fill in as well.
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Post by gatordog on Sept 15, 2009 9:36:27 GMT -5
The totals are quite a bit lighter than I would have anticipated. This is especially true at the 2014-2016 range. Crone losing almost 400 students in 7 years? I did take a peek just to double check the Crone numbers. And adding up K-1-2 for Graham, Kendall, and Patterson (the Crone feeders) gives those results. Recall from the assumptions, Crone is under predicted a bit because I ignored the neighborhood right by Crone. For simplicity, those numbers were fed into Scullen. I dont know how far off this makes the feed-forward numbers at Crone. (Does anybody know the name of that subdivision? Is it Ashwood something?...I dont know.) Again, as weneed was saying, the general trend seems to be: the north and central areas holding or even gaining students, and the south losing while waiting for newer construction to resume. I think this general trend reveals itself pretty well in these MS numbers. Also, the enrollment spread I think looks pretty decent across the MSs.
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Post by gatordog on Sept 15, 2009 11:34:41 GMT -5
Just for reference, here are the MS boundaries by ES school, as I understand it:
HILL: BD, Cowl, Watts GRANGER: Brks, Long, Young STILL: Gom, Owen, WE (plus small part Cowl) FISCHER: GT, Mcc, Steck SCULLEN: Fry, Peter, Welch GREGORY: Builta, Clow, SBrk CRONE: Gra, Kend, Patt (plus small part of Pet)
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Post by southsidesignmaker on Sept 15, 2009 22:00:43 GMT -5
G-dog, the subdivision is Ashwood Creek.
Bolingbrook will help with additional enrollment, but note my previous comment about open land was only partly correct, most of the property I spoke of was south of 111th and east of Napeville / Plainfield road, much of this property is not presently part of our district. Only a small section of land south of 111th in this area now resides in district.
With the figures at hand it would appear that we could have 8300-8400 high school students in about 10 years. This is also based on neighborhoods like Tall Grass and other southside subdivisions staying stable.
Now if all the baby boomers decide to wait out this real estate debacle and not move these subdivisions will continue to age.
This will pose a situation we have not found ourselves in as a district. Justifying one and maybe more operating referendums to a large percentage of folks that have no children in district. I expect this to be a hard sell to many taxpayers. This will be especially true when taxpayers take notice of what percentage of their bill goes to fund school operations. God forbid the tax payer start to take notice the breakdown going to pension funds especially with all the bad press recently.
There is always another scenario that the 50 plus crowd will dump their homes onto the market and sell at any price to get out of high cost lifestyles. With wages stagnant and retirement accounts at lower levels, I suspect there will be more than a few that opt to live a less costly lifestyle. If this happens the housing market should continue to stagnate at best, decline at worst as the younger group does not have near the net worth to afford these homes (let alone the taxes).
Time will tell, but I do have concerns with population moving forward.
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Post by insider on Sept 15, 2009 23:39:08 GMT -5
This document explains the methodologies, variables and data used to determine future student growth in SDs. The cohort survival technique is widely used in projecting student populations. D204 (Crouse) used it to "arrive" at his referendum projections. As you can see, when all has been gathered, it is a fairly accurate science. In 2005 the City of Naperville revisited and reduced their student generation tables, submitted to both D204 and D203 for review. It was accepted and approved by all governments. www.iic-inc.com/documents/iic-School_Enrollment.pdf
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Post by insider on Sept 15, 2009 23:44:52 GMT -5
I feel one very important factor that continues to be ignored time and time again is the maturation factor that has existed in the district. It has to be part of the equation. There is no doubt in my mind the growth brakes are on. Historical enrollment trends indicate we peaked in district wide enrollment in 1998 and we've been on the decline since. This is a factual piece of reality. www.iic-inc.com/documents/iic-School_Enrollment.pdf
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Post by gatordog on Sept 16, 2009 12:29:51 GMT -5
I feel one very important factor that continues to be ignored time and time again is the maturation factor that has existed in the district. It has to be part of the equation. First, insider, thanks for the link. That is a very interesting demographic general descriptions. For what I was doing, simply feeding forward entrollments, I am intentionally ignoring this factor. I am not trying at all, for example to look at birth-rates to predict K enrollment. Here is one thing that I find pretty interesting in the enrollment numbers. Yes, overall district wide there is enrollment decline. Yet there actually is enrollment growth in the MV attendance area. Consider this: looking at the MV feeder MS's--Hill, Granger, a third of Still-- current enrollments today are about 1978 or about 659 per class. Now, look at the MV feeder young ES enrollments, I took 3rd, 2nd, 1st grades: current enrollments here come to about 2114 or 705 per class. That is a 7% increase. Is that statistically significant? This is spread out over three classes, each way, which I think makes it reasonable to say it is. I just wonder if this is some demographic trend at work: the more older neighbors going to MV seeing "turnover" with younger families coming in as older ones move out. Even if zero real estate development occurs (a questionable assumpion) would a similar "uptick" or "leveling" in school age kids eventually hit other areas as well, yet much further in the future? I guess a comment I would have is this: my impression is some people say enrolllment is in decline (which is true), but then they tend to imply that enrollments will decline and decline and decline continously. I dont think that will be the case. If somebody has evidence that it will, it would be interesting to see.
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Post by gatordog on Sept 16, 2009 12:44:05 GMT -5
[.... looking at the MV feeder MS's--Hill, Granger, a third of Still-- current enrollments today are about 1978 or about 659 per class. Now, look at the MV feeder young ES enrollments, I took 3rd, 2nd, 1st grades: current enrollments here come to about 2114 or 705 per class. . Just as a double check to my three-class MS population estimate, I had handy the 2007-08 District enrollments. I added up the 5-4-3 grade classes then (now in 7-6-5 grades) at all the MV feeders estimates. I got 1951 total students, or 650 per class. This number also agrees with what we know is approx the first couple class sizes at MV. Again, adding up the younger students today at these ES's, you have about 7% more students.
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Post by southsidesignmaker on Sept 16, 2009 12:59:08 GMT -5
Gatordog, your estimate with regard to the transitioning of stability on the southside would appear to make sense. I guess the million dollar question is "at what point" will the folks with no kids in district leave and when will families with school age kids take their place.
In my neighborhood there are many 4 bedroom homes that are very family orientated. I suspect when the market comes back there will be renewed sales with younger families moving in.
My hope is that we can keep the tax rate around 2%-2.3% of total home value, this way we will have a "leg up" on other cities such as Oswego and Plainfield.
We need to stay competitive as a region, which is no small job.
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Post by asmodeus on Sept 16, 2009 15:00:03 GMT -5
I hoped for that 8-10 years ago...and then reality hit. I'm currently at about 2.7%
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