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Post by gatordog on Apr 8, 2010 12:59:28 GMT -5
I realized I have some data here that further refines the variation in district future enrollments. This breaks down enrollment increases or decreases by MS attendance area. A very course look is merely at the entire district. Previously, I had broken it into thirds, based on HS attendance area. (done in this thread ip204.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=soundoff&action=display&thread=3104)This directly uses the future MS enrollment projections given in another thread ip204.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=soundoff&action=display&thread=3136Start with today's MS enrollments, and compare to enrollments six years away. This is the furthest out projection we can do with actual data, namely when today's K students are in grade 6. (of course, this all assumes zero students added to system) 6 yr enrollment change: Granger +9% Hill +3% Still +3% Fischer -6% Scullen -12% Gregory -22% Crone -32% I wanted to add this, just to give a further perspective of enrollment trends. Essentially, dividing district up into sevenths here. This same info has somewhat been discussed in the other threads although indirectly.
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Post by grounded on Apr 8, 2010 17:45:19 GMT -5
Interesting info, so most of the future growth is going to be in the Northern middle schools. From a lot of what I've read, you'd think it was mostly in the southern area of 204.
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Post by southsidesignmaker on Apr 8, 2010 22:01:16 GMT -5
What may be happening in the southern reaches of the district is more folks are staying in their homes for a longer period of time. The large housing boom may have exaggerated sustainable numbers at least in the short to mid term. The northern and central regions of the district are already built out and many neighborhoods are older with a more stable school population.
Long term I suspect that the neighborhoods to the south will mature and then turn over rapidly. When this occurs most of the housing stock which include 4 bedroom "kid friendly" type subdivisions will again repopulate with school age children.
Most of these subdivisions and the housing stock are less than perfect for the older baby boomers. No first floor master bedrooms, lots of stairs, high maintenance interiors and exteriors, and relatively high taxes when compared against actual services needed.
What a shame that the area known as sector G will not be able to market to these ever aging boomers, as I for one would love to stay in district later in life. The only area available now is the subdivision just west of 59 and north of 95th st. Unfortunately for many getting closer to retirement this project is just out of reach from a cost standpoint. Maybe all the land close to the tracks and west of 248h st in the super luxury subdivision could be remarketed to middle income AARP members. I will be patient as up to now there has been little long term planning for this new market force.
Of course our school district leaders have brought it up from time to time, but to no avail.
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Post by gatordog on Apr 8, 2010 23:16:11 GMT -5
Interesting info, so most of the future growth is going to be in the Northern middle schools. From a lot of what I've read, you'd think it was mostly in the southern area of 204. Yes, actual in-the-pipeline student growth is there in the indicated MSs. You got me thinking a little here, grounded. I think I need to make an "in fairness" comment. In fairness to the Crone and Gregory very large % drops, I think those numbers can be misleading. Crone is over 1200 student and Gregory (an older, smaller MS bldg) is over 1000 students. These percentage drops being based on TODAYS enrollments is a bit unfair in that the starting points are probably unreasonably high. Its probably a good thing that these schools have a big percentage drop in that they were perhaps too crowded today to begin with. Maybe some people from the Crone or Gregory communties could comment on that. edit: but to circle back to the main point....these percentage changes do show the trends in district enrollment. And they are uneven.
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Post by gatordog on Apr 8, 2010 23:26:59 GMT -5
... Long term I suspect that the neighborhoods to the south will mature and then turn over rapidly. When this occurs most of the housing stock which include 4 bedroom "kid friendly" type subdivisions will again repopulate with school age children. ...... Very good point. I think I understand what you are saying. When economy becomes more favorable, there could be a rapid turnover, and thus rapid influx of new, younger families. From a SD point of view, you could have zero new houses and subdivisons being built, yet a pretty sudden influx of kids.One could easily say "Gee, its not like in the past around here, and also Oswego and Plainfield, when I saw all those new houses being built. Then, I understood where the kids were coming from. But now, I dont see houses sprouting up....yet there sure are more and more kids around the neighborhood these days." Its not just a matter of critics saying, "there are no new houses being built. Its going to be a long long time for new houses to be built" What you describe is another mechanism for new students coming into the SD, especially in the south. I think what you describe would be a wonderful outcome for the southern part of our community. Nice for the current homeowners, and nice for the newcomers to come and raise their kids in a great place to do just that. You know what, SSSM....I think what you describe may very well come to pass for our future.
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Post by southsidesignmaker on Apr 9, 2010 10:32:07 GMT -5
G- dog,
All one has to do is look at suburbs that experienced the baby boom bubble of the 70's and early 80's. Fast forward to present, the boomers are aging along with their children. There will be a noticeable decrease in subdivisions that are full of boomers and the aging children. Just look at Patterson grade school. The enrollment drop has been noticeable. The feeder subdivisions for this grade school include Rose Hill and Ashbury. These subdivisions are mainly made up of 4 bedroom larger family type homes. The values are dropping form the 2006 highs which make these homes more affordable for the "30 something" crowd.
The 40-50 something crowd will find these homes somewhat burdensome in years to come, i.e no first floor master bedrooms, With values dropping but real estate taxes staying the same, many of these boomers will find that the lifestyle once thought of as necessary may no longer be. The added burden of keeping these homes up with empty bedrooms may no longer make sense. This along with the idea that boomers have been very sensitive to outside marketing forces and the idea of "keeping up with the Jones".... If the "Jones are moving, why not the Johnsons" and so on.
Yes I would plan on certain areas of our district returning to the younger set in the next 8-10 years.
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Post by grounded on Apr 9, 2010 10:56:35 GMT -5
Practically every house that has turned in our neighborhood in the last 2 years has been filled with families with small children (infant to ~2nd grade), so see a strong pipeline feeding our ES.
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Post by wvhsparent on Apr 9, 2010 18:14:33 GMT -5
Practically every house that has turned in our neighborhood in the last 2 years has been filled with families with small children (infant to ~2nd grade), so see a strong pipeline feeding our ES. Which ES area are you in?
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