ES future enrollments

[gatordog]

To complete the "trilogy"---HS and MS done previously-- lets look at possible future ES enrollments. The 2009-10 school yr is actual, from 9/30/09 SD Enrollment report.

For 2011-12, I used todays 3rd-2nd-1st graders, who in two years will be 5th-4th-3rd, and doubled them to approx K-5. Finally, in five years, todays K students will be in 5th gr. Take these numbers and multiply by 6 for simple K-5 estimate. For these approximations, I am just using the "6th day enrollment numbers", close enough...and they are already in my spreadsheet. Again, this all assumes zero growth.


results:

ES BD Brks Builta Clow Cowl Fry Gt Gom Gra Kend Long Mcc Owen Patt Peter SBrk Steck Watts Welch WE Young

09-10 523 667 535 430 728 810 614 503 605 648 466 630 589 690 443 804 691 608 857 553 808

11-12 514 624 528 396 682 788 604 502 570 676 504 632 540 662 458 766 658 574 808 542 852

14-15 504 654 468 426 822 702 558 516 432 510 462 684 636 582 342 702 594 582 780 474 744

5 yr% chg -3.6 -1.9 -12.5 -0.9 12.9 -13.3 -9.1 2.6 -28.6 -21.3 -0.9 8.6 8.0 -15.7 -22.8 -12.7 -14.0 -4.3 -9.0 -14.3 -7.9

full cap 650 850 850 650 850 950 700 650 850 850 476 850 850 950 850 950 850 850 950 850 850

% cap 09-10 80 78 63 66 86 85 88 77 71 76 98 74 69 73 52 85 81 72 90 65 95

% cap 11-12 79 73 62 61 80 83 86 77 67 80 106 74 64 70 54 81 77 68 85 64 100

% cap 14-15 78 77 55 66 97 74 80 79 51 60 97 80 75 61 40 74 70 68 82 56 88

[WeNeed3]

Again, assuming no growth in the south, the district should definitely look at consolidating southern ES's in the future. The least disruptive move would be to move the 52% capacity of Peterson and distribute them to WE for the ones going to Still and Kendall or Graham for the other sections. Personally, I would pick a school that wasn't affected by the last boundary change like Graham and close it and split them to Peterson and Builta. They seem split in two sections as it is and not a perfect block. Not a pleasant task but it would be a money saver. Not sure how all this would affect MS and HS boundaries/splits too. I think the small portion of Petersen south of 111th that goes to Crone would benefit from having more kids from Graham being with them in ES and going with them to Crone.

[mom24]

How can these numbers be right? For example, Young shows only 808 with cap at 850, however, we have two portable classrooms sitting right in front of the school.

[gatordog]

Nov 13, 2009 11:12:11 GMT -5 mom24 said:

.... For example, Young shows only 808 with cap at 850, however, we have two portable classrooms sitting right in front of the school.

my understanding is they desire an ES to operate at no more than 90% of its "full" capacity, for optimal function. Being that Young is about this threshold, I think this explains the portables there.

I also see Longwood as quite full. Are there portables there? (or maybe the capacity number is not right. but it is a small bldg)

[Arwen]

I don't think there are portables at Longwood, but I think they may be doing art/music on a cart.

I think part of the problem at Young maybe the available capacity vs. the need. For example, if every grade 1-5 classroom had 2 open slots, that would look like available capacity for 20+ kids, but it wouldn't help house a kindergarten class since you couldn't consolidate those slots into an open classroom.

[momto4]

Isn't the capacity lower for all the ES buildings now that they all have all day K?

[Arwen]

Nov 13, 2009 15:21:09 GMT -5 momto4 said:

Isn't the capacity lower for all the ES buildings now that they all have all day K?

I think the capacity number probably stays the same, but the number of classrooms required for kindergarten doubles.

[gatordog]

Nov 13, 2009 17:22:31 GMT -5 Arwen said:

Nov 13, 2009 15:21:09 GMT -5 momto4 said:

Isn't the capacity lower for all the ES buildings now that they all have all day K?

I think the capacity number probably stays the same, but the number of classrooms required for kindergarten doubles.

I think momto4 brings up a good point. I think if we want to truly make an apples-to-apples capacity (past half day K vs present ADK) comparison, we could factor in that in.

In the past we decided to build for example an 850 seat ES. But that enrollement was planned/sized for the K portion of those students,being there only half the day.

I will estimate that we can "derate" the original capacity to account for ADK by reducing capacity about 1-5.5/6 or about 8%.


What the heck, here is the "new" spreadsheet results. FWIW! (edit; so its about an 8% effect, yes I think that is worth putting into consideration)

results:

ES BD Brks Builta Clow Cowl Fry Gt Gom Gra Kend Long Mcc Owen Patt Peter SBrk Steck Watts Welch WE Young

09-10 523 667 535 430 728 810 614 503 605 648 466 630 589 690 443 804 691 608 857 553 808

11-12 514 624 528 396 682 788 604 502 570 676 504 632 540 662 458 766 658 574 808 542 852

14-15 504 654 468 426 822 702 558 516 432 510 462 684 636 582 342 702 594 582 780 474 744

5 yr% chg -3.6 -1.9 -12.5 -0.9 12.9 -13.3 -9.1 2.6 -28.6 -21.3 -0.9 8.6 8.0 -15.7 -22.8 -12.7 -14.0 -4.3 -9.0 -14.3 -7.9

full cap-ADK 596 779 779 596 779 871 642 596 779 779 436 779 779 871 779 871 779 779 871 779 779

% cap 09-10 88 86 69 72 93 93 96 84 78 83 107 81 76 79 57 92 89 78 98 71 104

% cap 11-12 86 80 68 66 88 90 94 84 73 87 116 81 69 76 59 88 84 74 93 70 109

% cap 14-15 85 84 60 71 105 81 87 87 55 65 106 88 82 67 44 81 76 75 90 61 95

[insider]

GD, the capacity is what it is. The enrollment is what it is. It doesn't matter if there are less or more kids in all day K or half day K, 1st grade or 2nd grade. Each class has and will vary in section numbers year to year. ADK did not greatly impact the district whatsoever. You can see by the current enrollment that K and 1st grade has declined by to just over 2000 IIRC during peak years it was anywhere between 2200-2300 students. There are X number of classrooms based on each building's capacity for all grades. Capacity starts to become an issue when you have 5 sections of each grade. In the past we've seen 4-5 sections per grade level in elementary schools. That's just no longer the case and you just can't take 8% off each building's capacity to make the enrollment and capacity numbers look better than they are or the space over utilized because the truth of the matter is we haven't lost or removed any buildings or classroom space to create a formula that reduces capacity with all due respect.

[momto4]

Nov 14, 2009 0:31:10 GMT -5 insider said:

GD, the capacity is what it is. The enrollment is what it is. It doesn't matter if there are less or more kids in all day K or half day K, 1st grade or 2nd grade. Each class has and will vary in section numbers year to year. ADK did not greatly impact the district whatsoever. You can see by the current enrollment that K and 1st grade has declined by to just over 2000 IIRC during peak years it was anywhere between 2200-2300 students. There are X number of classrooms based on each building's capacity for all grades. Capacity starts to become an issue when you have 5 sections of each grade. In the past we've seen 4-5 sections per grade level in elementary schools. That's just no longer the case and you just can't take 8% off each building's capacity to make the enrollment and capacity numbers look better than they are or the space over utilized because the truth of the matter is we haven't lost or removed any buildings or classroom space to create a formula that reduces capacity with all due respect.

Sorry, but this makes no sense to me. If for example you had 2 classrooms being used for 100 half-day kindergartners and now you can only use those two classrooms for 50 full day kindergartners, how has the building's capacity not dropped? This has nothing to do with trying to make numbers look different, better, worse, whatever, it's just reality that kindergarten is taking up twice as much space as it was.

[insider]

It’s simple but you need the correct factors to arrive at the correct conclusion. The equation is:

Total # grade level sections needed per enrollment by grade minus (-) total # grade level classrooms available per building capacity = total over/underutilized classroom space

850 capacity schools have 28 grade level classrooms available for use.

Let's say Graham’s enrollment and grade level sections for a school year breaks down as follows:

Grade Sects #Stud Cap. #Classooms Used Unused
K 3 79
1 4 110
2 4 107
3 5 115
4 4 113
5 5 145
Total 25 666 850 28 -25 3

28 available classrooms – 25 sections = 3 empty classrooms
The bldg's capacity doesn’t change (an 850 bldg was designed to contain 28 grade level classrooms) only the usage of total classroom space changes.

In buildings were enrollment has declined some of this space is being used for storage, converted to teacher office space, for special ed instruction ect.

[momto4]

Nov 14, 2009 13:29:42 GMT -5 insider said:

It’s simple but you need the correct factors to arrive at the correct conclusion. The equation is:

Total # grade level sections needed per enrollment by grade minus (-) total # grade level classrooms available per building capacity = total over/underutilized classroom space

850 capacity schools have 28 grade level classrooms available for use.

Let's say Graham’s enrollment and grade level sections for a school year breaks down as follows:

Grade Sects #Stud Cap. #Classooms Used Unused
K 3 79
1 4 110
2 4 107
3 5 115
4 4 113
5 5 145
Total 25 666 850 28 -25 3

28 available classrooms – 25 sections = 3 empty classrooms
The bldg's capacity doesn’t change (an 850 bldg was designed to contain 28 grade level classrooms) only the usage of total classroom space changes.

In buildings were enrollment has declined some of this space is being used for storage, converted to teacher office space, for special ed instruction ect.

Thanks.

So are you are saying that capacity numbers when buildings had half day K were incorrect (since those could be used for twice as many kids as technically "fit" into the classroom)? Or does this somehow not figure in at all?

I mean, certainly if we went to split shifts in elementary schools, each building would have double whatever capacity they have now, right? And half day K is pretty much an elementary split shift. This is something that a local district did in the late 60s or early 70s for some grades when they didn't have enough capacity for their whole student body - half the ES kids went in the morning, other half in the afternoon.

If capacity is not a function of utilization, then I remain confused.

[gatordog]

Nov 14, 2009 0:31:10 GMT -5 insider said:

GD, the capacity is what it is. The enrollment is what it is. It doesn't matter if there are less or more kids in all day K or half day K, 1st grade or 2nd grade.

We are just attempting to make the fairest and most straightforward comparison of ES capacity. In the past, in the present, and into the future. To that end, I think momto4's point about making an adjustmkent for ADK is very valid.

It may well be that when an architect or administrator rates a bldg having fully capacity of, for example 850, they mean all day students. That is not the point. The point is for comparison, when our ES bldgs were built.....when we capared capacity to total school enrollment, part of that enrollment (K) was only there half day.

You say "capacity is what it is". But I say "enrollment isnt was it was". Thats part that we are trying to fairly and understably account for.

......you just can't take 8% off each building's capacity to make the enrollment and capacity numbers look better than they are or the space over utilized because the truth of the matter is we haven't lost or removed any buildings or classroom space to create a formula that reduces capacity with all due respect.

Let me make this clear: I am not trying to "make numbers look better than they are." I am trying to allow for one to make a comparison of ES usage.

[gatordog]

Nov 14, 2009 13:29:42 GMT -5 insider said:

It’s simple but you need the correct factors to arrive at the correct conclusion. The equation is:

Total # grade level sections needed per enrollment by grade minus (-) total # grade level classrooms available per building capacity = total over/underutilized classroom space

......

That would be another interesting way to compare and project ES usage: how many section vs classrooms.

Its probably a little harder to do, and maybe not as transparent (since number of sections and class size is not completely clear, there are special classes with different sizing requirements, etc) but if somebody could put that together district-wide for all ES's as a guide for the future, I would be interested in seeing it.

[momto4]

Is capacity the maximum number of students who can be in the building at one time, or the total maximum number of students who can be served by that building? In one case ADK makes a difference and in the other case it doesn't. I'm not planning to bother anyone on the SB to ask about this.

Reality is that full capacity can never be used unless we somehow make every section of every grade equal to the maximum number of students for that classroom. That also goes for other than grade level classrooms such as ELL. Space is also needed for things like PA and remedial help and that space needs to be in addition to the regular classrooms.